Jupiter’s Card: TV loses $7 billion by 2011

Disruptive innovations assailing the television industry will likely result in a loss of $7 billion by 2011, according to JupiterResearch analyst David Card and reported in MediaDailyNews. A new study by the company shows TV gaining $5 billion from new platforms but losing $12 billion due to ad-skipping by those with DVRs.

Jupiter’s forecast is erring on the side of caution, according to Card; it doesn’t cut TV much slack. “We advise media planners not to cave in to TV and Nielsen’s talk about new live-plus ratings. If stuff is time-shifted, a lot of the ads will definitely be skipped.” He was careful to note that the $12 billion loss figure is a worst-case scenario. It was calculated by combining recent data on DVR subscription rates with surveys of American households when asked how often they skipped commercials.
Like all of these forecasts, any little thing can bump the numbers in one direction or the other, but Card’s insistence that the ad-skipping problem is big is a refreshing change from all the spin coming from the networks about it.

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