BIA Financial revises TV revenue projections

Here’s a piece of news you’ll only get here. BIA Financial Network has revised their revenue projections for local television for this year and next. Mark R. Fratrik, Ph.D., Vice President, BIAfn, told me on the phone this afternoon that their “Investing in Television, 4th Edition,” which comes out next week, will project 8.7% revenue growth for 2006. That’s up from the 7.2% projection earlier this year. 2007, however, is being revised downward to a 1.3% decrease — down from the 1% increase that was forecast in May.

2006 up, 2007 down

Prior to his job at BIAfn, Mark was an economist for the NAB for 15 years. He told me that political spending far exceeded anybody’s projections “It shows that television is a very valued part of the political advertising process,” he said, “even after all the other choices that are available today, which speaks well for 2008 and all of the even numbered years for a very long time to come.”

The odd years, he says, are what will make TV challenging. “In every odd year, broadcasters will be hard-pressed to even keep up with those revenues.”

He told me that Wall Street tends to get too caught up in quarterly reports, but that serious investors understand that this “piano key” graph is the pattern that they have to live with.

Meanwhile, E. W. Scripps Co. executives on Monday told analysts that they predict ad revenue at their 10 broadcast stations will decline 3%-5% in 2007, largely because absence of political advertising next year.

Frankly, I think this projection is probably more accurate for the industry as a whole. Political revenue surprised everybody, so the declines of next year will be more acute than what were projected before. We’ll see.

Comments

  1. thedetroitchannel says:

    just think if perot had chosen a running mate that could have strung together a complete sentence at that debate…we’d have a three party system now and another big ad buyer.

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